Wayfair shares are overvalued, according to a Citi analyst, who downgraded the online household-furnishings retailer to sell.
A recent survey released by Piper Sandler, which assessed consumer behavior changes amidst COVID-19, concluded that most respondents were generally optimistic about the economy, more than half are spending less since mid-March, and 55% of consumers don’t expect to return to normal spending behavior for >6 months after COVID-19 concerns fade. The Final Round panel breaks down the survey and discusses what the survey means for retailers in a post-coronavirus world.
Most of the seasonal workers hired to help meet Amazon’s e-commerce demand during the coronavirus pandemic will have the option to stay on full-time starting in June.
(Bloomberg Opinion) -- With first-quarter earnings mostly in the books, investors have now gotten their first detailed glimpse of how the coronavirus pandemic has affected profits in corporate America. To no one’s surprise, the results as a whole weren’t good: Earnings fell about 14% from a year earlier for members of the S&P 500 Index, according to DataTrek Research. Wall Street analysts expect things to get worse before they get better, with earnings forecast to plunge about 41% in the second quarter, decline 24% in the third quarter and drop 11% in the final three months of the year. Add them up and Wall Street forecasts a 20% tumble for the year to $127 a share. Coming into 2020, the consensus was that members of the S&P 500 would produce earnings of about $175 a share. But that’s the mile-high view. For a real sense of the challenges facing the economy, it helps to get as granular as possible. To that end, we’ve asked those Bloomberg Opinion columnists that focus on business and finance to provide their thoughts on the quarter that snapped the longest U.S. economic expansion in history, revealing the winners and losers, highlighting interesting tidbits and musing about what may lie ahead.Bankers are the good guys? The message from the largest U.S. banks as they released their earnings in mid-April, just as the pandemic was escalating across America? We are well-capitalized, made a lot of money from trading in extremely volatile markets, and have the capacity to help our clients get through the crisis. Unlike the financial crisis just over a decade ago, big banks have a chance to be the good guys now, processing U.S. Small Business Administration loans and allowing individuals and families to delay payments on credit cards, auto loans and mortgages in certain cases. Yet banks have been among the biggest laggards across U.S. stock markets. The KBW Bank Index has fallen about 42% this year, compared with just 12% for the S&P 500, suggesting the economic recovery might be slower and more punishing than the broader markets for equities may be signaling. —Brian ChappattaCable conundrums, streaming dreams. The absence of lucrative sports programming and muted advertiser demand has forced traditional cable-network operators to make an even bigger push into the rocky terrain of streaming, where revenue is entirely dependent on must-see content continuously propelling subscriptions. AT&T Inc. said total ad sales fell 13%, while Walt Disney Co. said ESPN alone suffered an 8% drop. Meanwhile, almost 16 million people signed up for Netflix and about 2 million canceled cable TV. —Tara LachapelleGorging on comfort food. As panic-ridden consumers stock up on essentials, Big Food brands of yesteryear, from Kellogg’s Frosted Flakes to Kraft macaroni and cheese, that had been struggling to find their place in a new health-conscious society suddenly had a moment. This explains the resurgence of companies such as General Mills Inc., whose brands include Betty Crocker, Pillsbury and Totino’s pizza rolls. Its U.S. retail sales surged 45% in March and 32% in April. The question: Is this only a moment? We’re also noticing some quirky consumer habits. Unilever NV said we are using less deodorant, skin care and shampoo, as much of this use is associated with work and socializing. Henkel AG enjoyed strong demand for home hair coloring. If the recession is a long one, expect these habits to continue. —Tara Lachapelle and Andrea FelstedAmazon isn’t alone. E-commerce giant Amazon.com Inc.’s sales increased 26% in the quarter, and the company forecast up to 28% growth for its April-through-June quarter as nationwide lockdowns sparked a surge in online shopping. But overwhelming demand and shortages are giving its rivals opportunities as consumers increasingly shop elsewhere. It's showing up in the latest metrics from Shopify Inc.'s merchants, as well as Wayfair Inc., Best Buy Co., Target Corp. and Costco Wholesale Corp. — all pointing to much faster online sales growth rates than the tech giant. —Tae KimBig Tech divergence. Shares of Facebook Inc. and Google parent Alphabet Inc. rose post-earnings following better-than-feared commentary on April digital ad market trends. Even so, Facebook cautioned the future economic recovery may be worse than expected. And Google said not to extrapolate the stabilization that seemed to occur in April. Both internet ad giants may face business pressures going forward if companies cut their marketing budgets in coming quarters. In contrast, Amazon and Netflix are thriving as consumers increasingly shift spending to e-commerce and watch more streaming video content. Finally, Apple Inc. uncharacteristically failed to give sales guidance for its current quarter for the first time since 2003, signaling the lack of visibility it has for iPhone demand. —Tae KimCovid-time tech winners. Best-of-breed cloud software makers are surging as companies accelerate the spending shift away from traditional on-premise equipment to the cloud's more scalable and cost-efficient offerings. Some of the biggest earnings winners included Datadog Inc., Okta Inc. and Twilio Inc. Video-game stocks are one of the hottest-performing subsectors this year as it has become a key in-home entertainment choice under shelter-in-place orders. Both Activision Blizzard Inc. and Electronic Arts Inc. posted strong results and confirmed accelerating sales for its offerings in April. Investors also bid up Zoom Video Communications and Slack shares as the two companies benefited from the workforce-collaboration software trend and revealed strong accelerating business metrics. —Tae KimPharma unfazed, for now. As a wide variety of industries panicked and cut profit targets, large drugmakers broadly reaffirmed guidance in the first quarter. Merck & Co., which makes many hospital- and physician-administered treatments, was the only big firm to slash its drug sales forecast seriously. Making medicine is a durable business, even in a pandemic. However, if a strong second-half economic recovery doesn't materialize, more companies may follow Merck as patients make the tough decision to stay home instead of venturing out and seeking treatments. —Max NisenCover me. Large health insurers were also relatively sanguine, despite a pandemic that would seemingly spark increased claims. They believe that the dive in expensive elective surgeries will balance out adverse effects. That doesn't mean there won't be change. UnitedHealth Group Inc. announced this month that it plans to re-enter Obamacare's insurance markets after mostly exiting four years ago. A 14% unemployment rate will do that. Watch for imitators. —Max NisenCashing in on Covid cures? During Gilead Sciences Inc.’s first-quarter earnings call, an analyst asked CEO Daniel O'Day if investors should expect the sort of attractive returns from newly confirmed Covid treatment remdesivir that the company produces for other drugs. O'Day responded that "there's been no other time like this in the history of the planet" and that "we understand our responsibility." In other words, probably not. Gilead announced on Tuesday a temporary royalty-free license that will allow five generic drugmakers to make a presumably cheaper version for more than 100 low-income nations. Other companies will face pressure to follow its example and price moderately in developed countries, which calls into question the soaring valuations for pandemic-focused drugmakers. —Max NisenGoing local. Still spending. Coronavirus shutdowns have snarled industrial-supply chains already facing strain from the U.S.-China trade war. While no one envisions an abandonment of China as a manufacturing hub, there are early signs of work being brought back to the U.S. Unfortunately, this is unlikely to mean much in terms of jobs, at least not for humans. Rockwell Automation Inc. said it's seen an uptick in interest from companies that might have previously manufactured products out of Asia to take advantage of low wages but are now rethinking that economic calculus. When it comes to investment, discretionary spending on things like travel has been cut across the board at many manufacturers. Most CEOs and top executives have taken pay cuts. Buybacks are off the table but for a few brave souls, including Eaton Corp. But many manufacturers are continuing to fund projects they view as essential to their future growth. For United Parcel Service Inc., that means investments in automation that can help make e-commerce deliveries more profitable. For Caterpillar Inc., that's services work and expanding its product lineup. "I'm not planning on sacrificing the future just to cut back on capex," Honeywell International Inc. CEO Darius Adamczyk said on a recent earnings call. —Brooke SutherlandPink slips or paychecks? While aerospace manufacturers such as Boeing Co. and General Electric Co. have moved swiftly to announce large layoffs amid a collapse in the industry, other industrial companies have been more surgical, at least for now. Caterpillar CEO Jim Umpleby has said his company's efforts to hold headcount relatively flat even as revenue climbed the past few years means there's less slack in the system and the company doesn't have to be as ruthless on job cuts during the pandemic. Others, such as railroad Union Pacific Corp., are worried about having enough labor at the ready whenever a recovery does occur so prefer furloughs when possible. "We don't want to cut the talent so deep that when the recovery happens, we don't have the right people," said Greg Hayes, CEO of Raytheon Technologies Corp., whose robust balance sheet and defense business give it more flexibility to weather the commercial aerospace downturn. Companies can still save costs without cutting employees: Trash-hauler Waste Management Inc. is guaranteeing 40 hours a week of pay for full-time employees through the pandemic, but the redistribution of its workers has helped it reduce more costly overtime hours by half. —Brooke SutherlandStaying safe. Most manufacturers have kept their doors open through the pandemic because their work is considered essential. That has come at a cost: Trash-hauler Republic Services Inc. spent $3 million in the first quarter on actions to keep its employees safe, including providing them with protective gear and doing enhanced cleaning. To keep Emerson Electric Co.'s factories humming, Chief Operating Officer Steve Pelch had to rent aircraft to bring in crucial supplies and double the number of buses used to transport workers in Mexico so they can safely spread out, according to an interview with Bloomberg News's Thomas Black. Automated doors have been installed, as have hand-washing stations. Plexiglass partitions separate workers on the factory floor. Siemens AG digitally redesigned an Airbus SE factory that's been repurposed for ventilator manufacturing to ensure social distancing, and workers must pass through a sanitization tent to gain access. In what could be a key test for the reopening of other parts of the economy, automakers with large union workforces including General Motors Co. and Ford Motors Co. are bringing their factories back to life this week in preparation for a May 18 official restart. Ford said it will require face masks for anyone entering its facilities, as well as safety glasses with side or face shields for those employees whose jobs don't allow for social distancing. It's spacing out production shifts to allow more time for cleaning and requiring employees to complete daily health and temperature checks. —Brooke SutherlandOil, oil everywhere. At a primeval level, the oil business is all about sinking money into the ground. When the barrel gods are smiling, even more money comes back up. In 2020, it feels like the gods aren’t happy. Hence, earnings season for oil companies was odd. While exploration and production companies are always careful to talk up efficiency, what really gets the juices flowing are spending plans for new wells. Not this time. Parsley Energy Inc., which fracks in America’s oil heartland, the Permian basin, suspended drilling, declaring bluntly (and correctly) that right now, “the world does not need more of our product.” At the other end of the scale, Exxon Mobil Corp. also slashed spending this year to as little as — get ready for it — $23 billion! While Exxon recognizes the immediate impact of Covid-19, it doesn’t think “events like this change basic human nature or people's wants and desires.” The jury remains out on that notion. And in any case, the switch from budget boasting to public prudence offers a glimpse of what peak oil could mean for what’s ahead. Expect dissonance. —Liam DenningThis column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.Beth Williams is a managing editor with Bloomberg Opinion. She has also worked at Bloomberg News as an editor and reporter covering M&A, markets, companies, finance and government.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinionSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.
Wayfair likes to think of itself as the Amazon of home furnishings. Business at the $16bn US online furniture retailer is booming. People are flocking to its website for everything from cookware to office and patio furniture during the coronavirus pandemic.
Consumer behavior has changed drastically since stringent social-distancing measures are in place. This opens up opportunities for some businesses.
* This weekend's Barron's cover story shows how the race for a COVID-19 vaccine could affect investors. * Other featured articles look at stocks involved in the race for 5G and some value stocks that are worth a look now. * Also, the prospects for an online retailer, a networking stock, video streaming picks and more."How the Race for a Covid-19 Vaccine Affects Investors" by Josh Nathan-Kazis asks which stocks could face steep drops if their coronavirus vaccines fall through. Gilead Sciences, Inc. (NASDAQ: GILD)? Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ)?Nicholas Jasinski's "5G Is Here. Will Anyone Care?" shows why investors should temper their expectations about the next wave of wireless service. Will AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T) or Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ) be likely to benefit first?In "The U.S. and China's New Battle: 5G," Reshma Kapadia suggests that neither nation is willing to fall behind in shaping a new generation of communications. What's that mean for Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL), Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) and more?Shares of online furniture seller Wayfair Inc (NYSE: W) have soared during the lockdown, but the stock soon could come under heavy pressure. So says "Wayfair's Stock Could Drop 25% as Economy Reopens" by Bill Alpert.In Eric J. Savitz's "Earnings Lesson: Cisco Still Matters," see why Barron's believes that, despite a terrible earnings report, Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) stock deserves to trade more like video-streaming superstar Zoom Video (NASDAQ: ZM).See Also: Why A 'Prolonged Recession' Might Not Be Terrible For Investors"Covid-19 Is Crimping Cable TV and Boosting Netflix " by Jack Hough makes the case that soaring demand for streaming might work out well for Netflix Inc (NASDAQ: NFLX) and ViacomCBS Inc. (NYSE: VIAC).Value stocks have been anything but values in recent years, according to Evie Liu's "Value Stocks Look Cheaper Than Ever." They may be worth a look now. Does that include Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) or Kroger Co (NYSE: KR)?In "No Covid Vaccine? These Three Companies Sell Other 'Mission Critical' Products," Al Root examines FLIR Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: FLIR) and others that specialize in products and services that will make offices safer for returning workers.Also in this week's Barron's: * Why not all 5G is created equal * Why tensions with China have flared * How to avoid the coming trade wars * How COVID-19 is rewriting Economics 101 * Dividend stocks that split the difference between yield and safety * Whether hedge funds are betting the stay-at-home play is over * Latin American e-commerce companies getting a coronavirus boost * A commodity that is outperforming most othersSee more from Benzinga * Benzinga's Bulls And Bears Of The Week: Boeing, SmileDirectClub, Tesla And More * Benzinga's Bulls And Bears Of The Week: Ford, Gilead, Microsoft, Intel And More * Barron's Picks And Pans: Berkshire Hathaway, Carvana, Madison Square Garden And More(C) 2020 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
Q1 2020 Wayfair Inc Earnings Call
Home office furniture sales boomed, but selling furniture in a recession is going to be a lot harder.
Wayfair (W) is seeing positive earnings estimate revisions, suggesting that it could be a solid choice for investors.
Wayfair Inc. (W) is looking like an interesting pick from a technical perspective, as the company is seeing favorable trends on the moving average crossover front.
Activist investor and famed short seller Andrew Left of Citron Research said Tuesday that Restoration Hardware Holdings, Inc (NYSE: RH) is the "clear winner" of a potential large scale shift in American workers outside of expensive, densely populated urban centers.Left published a bullish note on his latest long position Restoration Hardware on Tuesday and set a $400 price target for the stock. The price target implies roughly 100% upside from current levels, but Left said he wouldn't be surprised if the stock made it to $800 in time as Wall Street begins to fully appreciate the power of its business model.The ThesisLeft said many of the top market performers of the past couple of months have been short-term work-from-home trades like Wayfair Inc (NYSE: W), but Restoration Hardware is a long-term play on what he sees as a secular shift in the US economy."Regardless of the possibility of a vaccine, the trend of moving out of cities to the suburbs for larger living spaces where people can work from home and the home is a sanctuary will be long-lasting," Left said.Left said Restoration Hardware's target customer demographic is the "upwardly mobile and style conscious consumer" that will soon be looking to move to the suburbs in the modern remote work environment. Left pointed out that the average order size on Wayfair is $235, whereas the most popular Restoration Hardware item is a $10,000 cloud couch.The company is optimistic it can grow its revenue from between $2 billion and $3 billion today to $20 billion in the long term. Left said even if the company only makes it halfway to that goal, $10 billion in revenue implies at least a $1,000 stock price.'Hyper Speed'In the near term, Left says the company should generate the strength of its business by posting positive revenue growth in the second quarter, the quarter many analysts say will mark the bottom of the current downturn.Left said the valuation gap between Restoration Hardware and both Wayfair and other luxury brands has never been wider."We have always been a fan of the product and the stock and now the new way of living will propel this business model into hyper speed," Left wrote.Left Not AloneLeft has at least one high-profile investor in his corner. Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-A) (NYSE: BRK-B) started buying shares of Restoration Hardware in the second half of last year and now holds a $339.9 million position in the stock.Related Links:Citron Questions Inovio's 'Robust' Preclinical Coronavirus Vaccine Announcement, Sees 90% Downside Ahead Citron Shorts Tesla, Again: 'Even Elon Would Short The Stock Here'Latest Ratings for RH DateFirmActionFromTo Apr 2020Gordon HaskettDowngradesHoldUnderperform Apr 2020BarclaysMaintainsOverweight Mar 2020UBSMaintainsNeutral View More Analyst Ratings for RH View the Latest Analyst Ratings See more from Benzinga * NYSE To Reopen Trading Floor On Limited Basis * Analyst: Why Penn National And Boyd Could Outperform As US Casinos Reopen * What The Yield Curve Is Saying About The Stock Market Rally(C) 2020 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
Dow Jones Recovers, Ralph Lauren advances on fourth-quarter results Continue reading...
At Overstock's annual meeting last week, CEO Jonathan Johnson said that quarter-to-date sales were up 130% year over year, with new customers up 260% during the period, as more consumers than ever were embracing online shopping. Peloton's sales -- and shares -- have surged since March. Peloton has a similar story to tell.
Investors need to pay close attention to Wayfair (W) stock based on the movements in the options market lately.
Amazon (AMZN) plans to hire 50,000 temporary workers in India in a bid to meet the growing demand amid COVID-19.
The COVID-19 pandemic has had a huge impact on the health and well-being of millions of people. Roughly two months ago, when gyms across the nation were closing their doors, savvy investors knew a door had opened for Peloton's business. Peloton, the largest interactive fitness platform in the world, is trying to become a household name, and it's made substantial progress during COVID-19 as consumers have looked for ways to exercise from home.
The rally for Wayfair shares may have ended, marking a good time to take profits and hit the sidelines.
It seems that consumers' confidence got restored in May as lockdowns were eased and businesses gradually reopened. Government stimulus helped companies weather the coronavirus crisis and improve their customer sentiments.
The online furniture seller’s stock has soared ninefold during the lockdown. It could come under heavy pressure and traditional furniture stores get back to business.